← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antony Gautier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 47% | 41% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.46 | fair |
| Nancy win | 25% | 38% | 4.00 | value: +52% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Oussama Haddadi · Dijon |
| 22' | 🟨 | Joeffrey Cuffaut · Nancy |
| 51' | ⚽ | Frédéric Sammaritano · Dijon |
| 54' | 🟨 | Maurice Dalé · Nancy |
| 76' | ⚽ | Loïs Diony · Dijon |
| 77' | 🟨 | Loïs Diony · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Nancy |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| coach days | 1778.00 | 1321.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.89 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1550.02 | 1543.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.88 | 0.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | -0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.83 |
| league points | 33.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 37.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | -1.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.56 | 28.89 |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | -1.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |