← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoit Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 54% | 52% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.74 | fair |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 20% | 21% | 4.95 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Giovanni Sio · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 66' | 🟨 | Damien Da Silva · Caen |
| 68' | ⚽ | Giovanni Sio · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ismaël Diomandé · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 2874.00 | 317.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1529.34 | 1620.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.29 | -4.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.00 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.78 |
| league points | 36.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | 0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 29.39 | 25.60 |
| state index | -0.55 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |