← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Clement Turpin, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 41% | 43% | 2.41 | value: +4% |
| Olympique de Marseille win | 32% | 31% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Diego Rolán · Bordeaux |
| 19' | 🟨 | Tomáš Hubočan · Olympique de Marseille |
| 33' | 🟨 | Patrice Evra · Olympique de Marseille |
| 50' | 🟨 | Valentín Vada · Bordeaux |
| 60' | ⚽ | Bafétimbi Gomis · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Matmut Atlantique |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 317.00 | 225.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1706.55 | 1727.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.41 | 35.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | 0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| league points | 57.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | 1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.98 | 29.57 |
| state index | 1.06 | 1.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |