← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antony Gautier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 50% | 51% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 31% | 3.77 | value: +17% |
| OGC Nice win | 25% | 18% | 4.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 218.00 | 371.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 1.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1716.78 | 1786.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.32 | 37.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.63 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 72.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.74 |
| league points | 55.00 | 77.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 2.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.71 | 1.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 29.13 | 25.86 |
| state index | 1.18 | 1.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.93 | 1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |