← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 63% | 59% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | 4.73 | value: +14% |
| Nantes win | 16% | 17% | 5.99 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Valentin Rongier · Nantes |
| 45' | 🟨 | Diego Carlos · Nantes |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Nabil Fekir · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 70' | ⚽ | Maxwel Cornet · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 75' | ⚽ | Guillaume Gillet · Nantes |
| 80' | ⚽ | Maxwel Cornet · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 82' | 🟨 | Yacine Bammou · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 20 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Parc Olympique Lyonnais |
| coach days |
| 523.00 |
| 157.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1682.79 | 1544.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.71 | 24.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.92 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.40 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| league points | 60.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 3.89 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.98 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 23.78 | — |
| state index | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |