← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 47% | 36% | 2.07 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.53 | fair |
| Caen win | 25% | 39% | 3.93 | value: +54% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Ismaël Diomandé · Caen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ola Toivonen · Toulouse FC |
| 58' | ⚽ | Ivan Santini · Caen |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jean-Victor Makengo · Caen |
| 63' | 🟨 | Steeve Yago · Toulouse FC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Issa Diop · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadium Municipal |
| coach days |
| 431.00 |
| 2866.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1531.69 | 1432.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.04 | -51.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 48.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.55 |
| league points | 42.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.00 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.38 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.34 | -1.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |