← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 90% | 90% | 1.08 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 7% | 14.00 | fair |
| Bastia win | 3% | 3% | 37.00 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 6 |
| 12 | On target | 0 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 3 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 339.00 | 491.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1921.67 | 1533.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.27 | 0.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.96 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.76 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 43.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| league points | 80.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.40 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 2.29 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.60 | -0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 28.09 | 24.92 |
| state index | 1.41 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.62 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |