← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 60% | 61% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.37 | fair |
| Metz win | 18% | 18% | 5.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Georges Mandjeck · Metz |
| 52' | 🟨 | Sébastien Corchia · Lille OSC |
| 55' | ⚽ | Renaud Cohade · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 0 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 94.00 | 522.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1660.30 | 1536.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.31 | -18.93 |
| eye test v1 | 0.56 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.67 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.60 |
| league points | 43.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | -0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 24.64 | 26.69 |
| state index | 0.60 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.83 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |