← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz win | 38% | 34% | 2.58 | fair |
| Nancy win | 33% | 33% | 2.97 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.38 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Alou Diarra · Nancy |
| 28' | ⚽ | Ismaïla Sarr · Metz |
| 41' | ⚽ | Faitout Maouassa · Nancy |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tobias Badila · Nancy |
| 53' | ⚽ | Opa Nguette · Metz |
| 55' | 🟨 | Simon Falette · Metz |
| 64' | 🟨 | Julien Cétout · Nancy |
| 70' | 🟨 | Cheick Doukouré · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Nancy |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
| coach days | 515.00 | 1306.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1527.66 | 1558.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.86 | -4.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.81 |
| league points | 36.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 34.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | -2.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.98 | 27.54 |
| state index | -1.10 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | -1.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |