← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 42% | 43% | 2.36 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.28 | value: +3% |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 29% | 25% | 3.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 61' | ⚽ | Vincent Pajot · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Romain Hamouma · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| coach days | 302.00 | 2706.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| 3.20 |
| 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.48 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1517.67 | 1589.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.71 | -20.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.65 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.58 |
| league points | 44.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.23 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |