← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jerome Miguelgorry, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 46% | 40% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.45 | fair |
| Bastia win | 26% | 32% | 3.79 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 64' | 🟨 | Yannick Cahuzac · Bastia |
| 68' | ⚽ | Enzo Crivelli · Bastia |
| 71' | 🟨 | Ramy Bensebaini · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bastia | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade Parsemain |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 484.00 | 302.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1522.74 | 1623.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.98 | 3.01 |
| eye test v1 | -1.09 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.65 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 42.80 | 48.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| league points | 28.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.12 | 25.71 |
| state index | -0.61 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |