← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Schneider, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 38% | 31% | 2.56 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 31% | 38% | 3.15 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | François Moubandje · Toulouse FC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Valentin Eysseric · OGC Nice |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jean Michaël Seri · OGC Nice |
| 45' | 🟨 | Yann Bodiger · Toulouse FC |
| 56' | ⚽ | Corentin Jean · Toulouse FC |
| 59' | ⚽ | Valentin Eysseric · OGC Nice |
| 80' | 🟨 | Paul Baysse · OGC Nice |
| 87' | 🟨 | Dalbert · OGC Nice |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jimmy Durmaz · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mario Balotelli · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 20 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadium Municipal |
| coach days | 418.00 | 357.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1611.00 | 1769.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.59 | 12.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.90 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 72.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| league points | 41.00 | 73.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 61.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 2.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.02 | 2.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.37 | 25.70 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | 1.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |