← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Clement Turpin, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 46% | 53% | 2.12 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.36 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 25% | 23% | 3.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Nicolas de Préville · Lille OSC |
| 16' | 🟨 | Mathieu Bodmer · Guingamp |
| 35' | 🟨 | Christophe Kerbrat · Guingamp |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolas de Préville · Lille OSC |
| 66' | ⚽ | Éder · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 80.00 | 295.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 3.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1627.05 | 1609.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.05 | 10.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.56 |
| league points | 37.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.89 | 27.57 |
| state index | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |