← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sébastien Desiage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 41% | 39% | 2.39 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.32 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 29% | 35% | 3.33 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Loïs Diony · Dijon |
| 16' | ⚽ | Pierre Lees Melou · Dijon |
| 43' | ⚽ | Loïs Diony · Dijon |
| 67' | 🟨 | Fouad Chafik · Dijon |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Thomas Mangani · Angers SCO |
| 69' | ⚽ | Karl Toko Ekambi · Angers SCO |
| 80' | 🟨 | Thomas Mangani · Angers SCO |
| 84' | 🟨 | Famara Diédhiou · Angers SCO |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Lotiès · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| coach days | 1756.00 | 2122.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1552.99 | 1587.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.04 | -12.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | — |
| league points | 29.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.55 | 27.26 |
| state index | -0.60 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |