← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Brisard Jerome, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 38% | 41% | 2.60 | value: +6% |
| Nantes win | 32% | 29% | 3.08 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Yacine Bammou · Nantes |
| 35' | ⚽ | Yacine Bammou · Nantes |
| 36' | 🟨 | Syam Ben Youssef · Caen |
| 79' | 🟨 | Maxime Dupé · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 2852.00 | 142.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1542.75 | 1605.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.49 | 18.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.40 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.45 | 0.77 |
| league points | 33.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 29.70 | 25.51 |
| state index | -0.73 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |