← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tony Chapron, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 70% | 72% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 21% | 5.06 | value: +6% |
| Bastia win | 10% | 7% | 9.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Igor Lewczuk · Bordeaux |
| 26' | 🟨 | Mehdi Mostefa · Bastia |
| 55' | ⚽ | Malcom · Bordeaux |
| 68' | 🟨 | Abdelhamid El Kaoutari · Bastia |
| 69' | ⚽ | Younousse Sankharé · Bordeaux |
| 74' | 🟨 | Younousse Sankharé · Bordeaux |
| 75' | 🟨 | Abdelhamid El Kaoutari · Bastia |
| 75' | 🟥 | Abdelhamid El Kaoutari · Bastia |
| 84' | 🟨 | Sadio Diallo · Bastia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Matmut Atlantique |
| coach days | 295.00 | 477.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1701.53 | 1528.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.44 | -26.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.65 | -1.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 43.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| league points | 52.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | -1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 26.57 | 27.17 |
| state index | 0.97 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.99 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |