← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Fri, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicolas Rainville, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 46% | 39% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.55 | value: +7% |
| Nancy win | 27% | 30% | 3.68 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 81' | 🟨 | Dimitri Payet · Olympique de Marseille |
| 85' | 🟨 | Rod Fanni · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nancy | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| coach days | 1298.00 | 202.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| venue | Stade Marcel-Picot |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1555.66 | 1706.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.76 | 20.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| league points | 31.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.80 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.89 | 1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 29.03 | 28.55 |
| state index | -0.26 | 0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.63 | 0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |