← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 38% | 38% | 2.61 | fair |
| Bordeaux win | 31% | 31% | 3.13 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Valentin Rongier · Nantes |
| 37' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pallois · Bordeaux |
| 60' | 🟨 | Youssouf Sabaly · Bordeaux |
| 65' | ⚽ | Younousse Sankharé · Bordeaux |
| 78' | 🟨 | Milan Gajić · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 0 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| coach days | 136.00 | 289.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1614.91 | 1692.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.80 | 12.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | 1.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 67.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| league points | 42.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.41 | 26.86 |
| state index | 0.41 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | -1.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |