← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 41% | 40% | 2.38 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.06 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 27% | 28% | 3.65 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Firmin Ndombe Mubele · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 29' | ⚽ | Giovanni Sio · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 55' | 🟨 | Franck Béria · Lille OSC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Yves Bissouma · Lille OSC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Clément Chantôme · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 22 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 288.00 | 73.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1606.20 | 1640.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.67 | 11.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.10 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| league points | 40.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.69 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.41 | 27.02 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |