← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 58% | 54% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.64 | value: +17% |
| Nancy win | 15% | 14% | 6.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Maurice Dalé · Nancy |
| 30' | 🟨 | Benoît Pedretti · Nancy |
| 35' | ⚽ | Mickaël Le Bihan · OGC Nice |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dante · OGC Nice |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Jean Michaël Seri · OGC Nice |
| 58' | 🟨 | Loïc Puyo · Nancy |
| 84' | ⚽ | Jean Michaël Seri · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Nancy |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| coach days | 349.00 | 1292.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1764.27 | 1561.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.42 | -13.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 71.90 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.85 |
| league points | 70.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.80 | 64.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 35.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.19 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.14 | -2.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.65 | 28.99 |
| state index | 0.97 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.76 | -1.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |