← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bartolomeu Varela Teles, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz win | 41% | 39% | 2.40 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.29 | fair |
| Caen win | 29% | 30% | 3.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 56' | 🟨 | Jordan Adeoti · Caen |
| 65' | ⚽ | Ismaïla Sarr · Metz |
| 74' | ⚽ | Ivan Santini · Caen |
| 83' | ⚽ | Cheick Diabaté · Metz |
| 88' | ⚽ | Ronny Rodelin · Caen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Milan Biševac · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
| 501.00 |
| 2845.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1420.79 | 1459.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.60 | -37.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.55 |
| league points | 35.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |