← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antony Gautier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 46% | 45% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.41 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 26% | 26% | 3.84 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Tongo Doumbia · Toulouse FC |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Jimmy Briand · Guingamp |
| 62' | ⚽ | Alexandre Mendy · Guingamp |
| 67' | 🟨 | Marcus Coco · Guingamp |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Andy Delort · Toulouse FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ludovic Blas · Guingamp |
| 81' | 🟨 | Issa Diop · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Baissama Sankoh · Guingamp |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| coach days |
| 288.00 |
| 410.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1522.44 | 1541.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.29 | 1.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.75 |
| league points | 41.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 38.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | -1.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |