← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicolas Rainville, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 75% | 82% | 1.31 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 15% | 13% | 6.60 | fair |
| FC Lorient win | 11% | 6% | 9.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Rafael · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 28' | ⚽ | Corentin Tolisso · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 39' | 🟨 | Wesley Lautoa · FC Lorient |
| 42' | ⚽ | Majeed Waris · FC Lorient |
| 44' | 🟨 | Nabil Fekir · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 49' | ⚽ | Sylvain Marveaux · FC Lorient |
| 74' | ⚽ | Benjamin Moukandjo · FC Lorient |
| 80' | ⚽ | Benjamin Moukandjo · FC Lorient |
| 82' | 🟨 | Emanuel Mammana · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | FC Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Parc Olympique Lyonnais |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 494.00 | 158.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1800.01 | 1538.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.69 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.30 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.67 |
| league points | 54.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.87 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.22 | 28.24 |
| state index | 1.22 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | 0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |