← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Schneider, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 37% | 41% | 2.63 | value: +8% |
| Montpellier win | 33% | 30% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Frédéric Guilbert · Caen |
| 49' | ⚽ | Stéphane Sessègnon · Montpellier |
| 50' | 🟨 | Ivan Santini · Caen |
| 55' | 🟨 | Daniel Congré · Montpellier |
| 56' | 🟨 | Ryad Boudebouz · Montpellier |
| 77' | 🟨 | Alaeddine Yahia · Caen |
| 77' | 🟨 | Rémy Vercoutre · Caen |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jonathan Ikoné · Montpellier |
| 88' | ⚽ | Jonathan Ikoné · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 2838.00 | 97.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1556.63 | 1599.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.69 | -46.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.30 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| league points | 32.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | 1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.74 | 26.58 |
| state index | -0.39 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |