← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sébastien Desiage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 68% | 70% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.87 | fair |
| Metz win | 12% | 10% | 7.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Younousse Sankharé · Bordeaux |
| 11' | 🟨 | Jérémy Toulalan · Bordeaux |
| 14' | ⚽ | Malcom · Bordeaux |
| 31' | 🟨 | Renaud Cohade · Metz |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Valentín Vada · Bordeaux |
| 52' | ⚽ | Valentín Vada · Bordeaux |
| 90' | 🟨 | Florent Mollet · Metz |
| 90' | 🟥 | Benoît Assou-Ekotto · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Matmut Atlantique |
| 281.00 |
| 494.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1603.65 | 1427.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.36 | 4.75 |
| eye test v1 | 1.11 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| league points | 46.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.46 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.00 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |