← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Wed, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruddy Buquet, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 70% | 56% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 24% | 5.55 | value: +31% |
| Metz win | 12% | 21% | 8.24 | value: +69% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Florent Mollet · Metz |
| 36' | 🟨 | Chris Philipps · Metz |
| 57' | 🟨 | Mouctar Diakhaby · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 59' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 76' | 🟨 | Georges Mandjeck · Metz |
| 87' | ⚽ | Jordan Ferri · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | ⚽ | Corentin Tolisso · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
| coach days | 491.00 | 491.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1565.52 | 1790.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.31 | 11.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | 0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.82 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 2.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| league points | 35.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 18.96 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 6.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 26.83 | 25.95 |
| state index | 0.18 | 0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |