← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 43% | 45% | 2.27 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.22 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 26% | 24% | 3.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Vincent Manceau · Angers SCO |
| 48' | ⚽ | Préjuce Nakoulma · Nantes |
| 54' | ⚽ | Préjuce Nakoulma · Nantes |
| 55' | ⚽ | Famara Diédhiou · Angers SCO |
| 77' | 🟨 | Sérgio Oliveira · Nantes |
| 86' | 🟥 | Issa Cissokho · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| coach days | 122.00 | 2102.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1602.60 | 1605.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.96 | 39.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | 1.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.61 |
| league points | 38.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 25.46 | 27.00 |
| state index | 0.44 | 0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |