← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tony Chapron, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 44% | 58% | 2.22 | value: +28% |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.47 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 28% | 20% | 3.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Ellyes Skhiri · Montpellier |
| 45' | ⚽ | Andy Delort · Toulouse FC |
| 47' | 🟨 | Corentin Jean · Toulouse FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Vitorino Hilton · Montpellier |
| 73' | 🟨 | Yann Bodiger · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days | 91.00 | 397.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1610.81 | 1607.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.55 | -1.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.00 | -1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | — |
| league points | 33.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 65.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 36.20 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.22 | -2.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.28 | 24.12 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | -1.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |