← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient win | 44% | 40% | 2.21 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.49 | fair |
| Caen win | 28% | 34% | 3.55 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Benjamin Moukandjo · FC Lorient |
| 49' | 🟥 | François Bellugou · FC Lorient |
| 54' | 🟨 | Michael Ciani · FC Lorient |
| 70' | 🟨 | Alaeddine Yahia · Caen |
| 81' | 🟥 | Damien Da Silva · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Lorient | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade du Moustoir |
| coach days | 152.00 | 2832.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1528.93 | 1565.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.52 | 11.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 49.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| league points | 25.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.66 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.09 | 29.05 |
| state index | -0.48 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.80 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |