← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 70% | 72% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 16% | 5.36 | fair |
| Dijon win | 12% | 12% | 8.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Bafétimbi Gomis · Olympique de Marseille |
| 16' | 🟨 | Chang-Hoon Kwon · Dijon |
| 36' | 🟨 | Júlio Tavares · Dijon |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Grégory Sertic · Dijon |
| 48' | ⚽ | Dimitri Payet · Olympique de Marseille |
| 51' | 🟨 | Mehdi Abeid · Dijon |
| 67' | 🟨 | Cédric Varrault · Dijon |
| 72' | 🟨 | Rolando · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 182.00 | 1735.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1696.46 | 1562.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.40 | -31.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| league points | 46.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.76 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.28 | 27.45 |
| state index | 0.93 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |