← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Fri, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jerome Miguelgorry, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 56% | 51% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.89 | fair |
| Nancy win | 19% | 24% | 5.21 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Faitout Maouassa · Nancy |
| 27' | 🟥 | Modou Diagne · Nancy |
| 59' | ⚽ | Sloan Privat · Guingamp |
| 69' | 🟨 | Vincent Muratori · Nancy |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jonathan Martins Pereira · Guingamp |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 4 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Nancy |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| coach days | 273.00 | 1277.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1597.85 | 1549.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.18 | -34.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.78 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.66 |
| league points | 38.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.66 | 26.83 |
| state index | 0.00 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |