← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Clement Turpin, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 69% | 63% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 21% | 5.18 | value: +9% |
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 12% | 16% | 8.08 | value: +27% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 291.00 | 474.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1921.77 | 1798.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.09 | 25.51 |
| eye test v1 | 1.41 | 1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.96 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.89 | 0.77 |
| league points | 65.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.60 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.24 | 1.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 19.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.16 | 0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 25.78 | 25.83 |
| state index | 1.75 | 1.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.12 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |