← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Bastien, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 36% | 41% | 2.72 | value: +10% |
| Dijon win | 34% | 28% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 65' | 🟨 | Loïs Diony · Dijon |
| 77' | ⚽ | Jordan Veretout · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 84' | 🟨 | Mehdi Abeid · Dijon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cheikh M'Bengue · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 16 |
| 0 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| coach days | 1722.00 | 2665.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1571.24 | 1687.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.74 | -39.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| league points | 28.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.45 | 26.64 |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |