← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sébastien Desiage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 43% | 34% | 2.26 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 40% | 3.20 | value: +29% |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 26% | 26% | 3.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Ramy Bensebaini · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 56' | 🟨 | Alexis Blin · Toulouse FC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Alexis Blin · Toulouse FC |
| 62' | 🟥 | Alexis Blin · Toulouse FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Giovanni Sio · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 86' | 🟨 | Issiaga Sylla · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 17 |
| 0 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadium Municipal |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 382.00 | 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1609.07 | 1620.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.96 | -6.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.72 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 51.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| league points | 36.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.68 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 24.35 | 25.86 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.14 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |