← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoit Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 39% | 48% | 2.54 | value: +21% |
| OGC Nice win | 31% | 21% | 3.19 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
| 28' | ⚽ | Jean Michaël Seri · OGC Nice |
| 44' | 🟨 | Valentin Eysseric · OGC Nice |
| 51' | 🟨 | Lucas Lima · Nantes |
| 64' | 🟨 | Diego Carlos · Nantes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Préjuce Nakoulma · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| coach days | 107.00 | 321.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1600.02 | 1751.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.61 | 11.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 67.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.76 |
| league points | 37.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 88.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 60.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 2.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | 2.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.31 | 25.16 |
| state index | 0.38 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | 1.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |