← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Schneider, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy win | 44% | 44% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.37 | fair |
| FC Lorient win | 26% | 27% | 3.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Faitout Maouassa · Nancy |
| 37' | 🟨 | Alhassan Wakaso · FC Lorient |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Issiar Dia · Nancy |
| 55' | 🟨 | Wesley Lautoa · FC Lorient |
| 66' | ⚽ | Benjamin Moukandjo · FC Lorient |
| 86' | ⚽ | Wesley Lautoa · FC Lorient |
| 88' | 🟨 | Diallo Guidileye · Nancy |
| 90' | ⚽ | Arnold Mvuemba · FC Lorient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nancy | FC Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Marcel-Picot |
| coach days | 1264.00 | 137.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1562.38 | 1515.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.51 | -36.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| league points | 28.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 0.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | 0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.19 | 28.06 |
| state index | -0.63 | -1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |