← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Brisard Jerome, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 43% | 41% | 2.29 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 36% | 3.24 | value: +16% |
| Guingamp win | 27% | 24% | 3.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Cheikh N'Doye · Angers SCO |
| 48' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Bamba · Angers SCO |
| 56' | 🟨 | Étienne Didot · Guingamp |
| 63' | ⚽ | Jonathan Bamba · Angers SCO |
| 68' | ⚽ | Thomas Mangani · Angers SCO |
| 83' | ⚽ | Famara Diédhiou · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Raymond-Kopa |
| coach days | 2087.00 | 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1589.77 | 1613.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.26 | 12.06 |
| eye test v1 | 1.20 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| league points | 36.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.17 | 27.51 |
| state index | 0.67 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.95 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |