← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Fri, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz win | 52% | 50% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.67 | fair |
| Bastia win | 22% | 23% | 4.50 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Gilles Cioni · Bastia |
| 46' | ⚽ (og) | Gilles Cioni · Metz |
| 50' | 🟨 | Iván Balliu · Metz |
| 69' | 🟨 | Opa Nguette · Metz |
| 78' | 🟨 | Axel Ngando · Bastia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 0 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
| coach days | 472.00 | 441.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| elo | 1557.67 | 1541.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.43 | -21.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -1.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.00 | 37.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | — |
| league points | 32.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.40 | -10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.84 | -1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 26.66 | 28.03 |
| state index | -0.53 | -1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |