← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Fri, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 37% | 39% | 2.62 | value: +3% |
| Lille OSC win | 33% | 32% | 2.97 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Henri Bedimo · Olympique de Marseille |
| 49' | 🟨 | Xeka · Lille OSC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Morgan Sanson · Olympique de Marseille |
| 87' | 🟨 | Dimitri Payet · Olympique de Marseille |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hiroki Sakai · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 44.00 | 167.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1641.13 | 1696.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.83 | 12.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| league points | 33.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.81 | 1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.15 | 28.32 |
| state index | 0.08 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.89 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |