← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jerome Miguelgorry, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 61% | 68% | 1.60 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 25% | 19% | 4.00 | fair |
| Metz win | 14% | 13% | 6.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Ismaïla Sarr · Metz |
| 53' | ⚽ | Robert Berić · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 67' | ⚽ | Simon Falette · Metz |
| 69' | 🟨 | Cheick Doukouré · Metz |
| 90' | ⚽ | Loïc Perrin · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 20 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| coach days | 2658.00 | 467.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1692.53 | 1552.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.05 | -3.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 67.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.72 |
| league points | 40.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | -1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.20 | 26.34 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | -1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |