← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 57% | 57% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.82 | fair |
| Dijon win | 17% | 19% | 5.63 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Fouad Chafik · Dijon |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ramy Bensebaini · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 42' | ⚽ | Júlio Tavares · Dijon |
| 58' | ⚽ | Wesley Saïd · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 85' | 🟨 | Romain Danzé · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 253.00 | 1714.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1623.53 | 1568.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.74 | -23.24 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 37.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.20 | 28.18 |
| state index | 0.21 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.64 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |