← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy win | 34% | 39% | 2.87 | value: +11% |
| Lille OSC win | 33% | 29% | 2.94 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.02 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Issiar Dia · Nancy |
| 50' | 🟨 | Faitout Maouassa · Nancy |
| 63' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolas de Préville · Lille OSC |
| 65' | 🟨 | Rony Lopes · Lille OSC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Benoît Pedretti · Nancy |
| 76' | 🟨 | Julien Cétout · Nancy |
| 81' | ⚽ | Rony Lopes · Lille OSC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Joeffrey Cuffaut · Nancy |
| 86' | 🟨 | Nicolas de Préville · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nancy | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stade Marcel-Picot |
| coach days | 1257.00 | 38.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1572.42 | 1631.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.94 | -16.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.75 |
| league points | 28.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.59 | 26.64 |
| state index | -0.68 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |