← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 49% | 44% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.41 | fair |
| Nantes win | 23% | 27% | 4.35 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Guillaume Gillet · Nantes |
| 12' | ⚽ | Steve Mounié · Montpellier |
| 24' | ⚽ | Préjuce Nakoulma · Nantes |
| 45' | 🟨 | Préjuce Nakoulma · Nantes |
| 68' | ⚽ | Préjuce Nakoulma · Nantes |
| 73' | 🟨 | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
| 84' | ⚽ | Ryad Boudebouz · Montpellier |
| 89' | ⚽ | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days | 69.00 | 100.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.75 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1636.71 | 1586.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.18 | 21.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.70 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.50 |
| league points | 33.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.90 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.66 | 25.64 |
| state index | 0.48 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |