← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antony Gautier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 60% | 55% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.03 | value: +4% |
| Bastia win | 16% | 19% | 6.31 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Lenny Nangis · Bastia |
| 35' | 🟨 | Prince Oniangué · Bastia |
| 39' | 🟨 | Gaël Danic · Bastia |
| 47' | ⚽ | Yannis Salibur · Guingamp |
| 56' | ⚽ | Lucas Deaux · Guingamp |
| 60' | 🟨 | Gaël Danic · Bastia |
| 60' | 🟥 | Gaël Danic · Bastia |
| 70' | ⚽ | Jimmy Briand · Guingamp |
| 78' | ⚽ | Ludovic Blas · Guingamp |
| 86' | ⚽ | Alexandre Mendy · Guingamp |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 2 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| coach days | 253.00 | 435.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1599.31 | 1555.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.08 | -20.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | -0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 38.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| league points | 35.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 28.95 | 28.46 |
| state index | -0.35 | -0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |