← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Fri, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 57% | 51% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.71 | fair |
| Caen win | 17% | 26% | 5.83 | value: +53% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | ⚽ | Ivan Santini · Caen |
| 41' | 🟨 | Arnaud Souquet · OGC Nice |
| 50' | ⚽ | Yann Karamoh · Caen |
| 56' | 🟨 | Syam Ben Youssef · Caen |
| 71' | ⚽ | Mario Balotelli · OGC Nice |
| 77' | ⚽ | Anastasios Donis · OGC Nice |
| 89' | 🟨 | Anastasios Donis · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| coach days | 313.00 | 2809.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1757.63 | 1567.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.61 | -8.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.70 | 49.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| league points | 62.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 2.21 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.91 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.61 | 29.74 |
| state index | 1.04 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.61 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |