← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Fri, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Schneider, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 56% | 56% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.73 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 18% | 18% | 5.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Florian Thauvin · Olympique de Marseille |
| 20' | ⚽ | Rémy Cabella · Olympique de Marseille |
| 77' | ⚽ | Florian Thauvin · Olympique de Marseille |
| 87' | 🟨 | Henri Bedimo · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| coach days |
| 160.00 |
| 2079.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1606.34 | 1522.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.26 | 48.55 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| league points | 42.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.99 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| state index | 0.46 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | -1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |