← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 47% | 48% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.23 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 23% | 24% | 4.35 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Christopher Jullien · Toulouse FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Éder · Lille OSC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Steeve Yago · Toulouse FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Alban Lafont · Toulouse FC |
| 80' | ⚽ | Yassine Benzia · Lille OSC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Vincent Enyeama · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadium Municipal |
| coach days |
| 369.00 |
| 32.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1539.88 | 1553.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.62 | -33.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.75 |
| league points | 35.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.42 | -0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.50 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.11 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |