← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antony Gautier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 86% | 70% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 26% | 9.70 | value: +147% ⚠ |
| Nancy win | 4% | 5% | 23.00 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Faitout Maouassa · Nancy |
| 45' | 🟨 | Issiar Dia · Nancy |
| 46' | 🟨 | Blaise Matuidi · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Anthony Koura · Nancy |
| 61' | 🟨 | Presnel Kimpembe · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Edinson Cavani · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Nancy |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 276.00 | 1250.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1917.52 | 1574.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.67 | -48.99 |
| eye test v1 | 1.61 | -1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.91 | 0.68 |
| league points | 59.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.19 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.68 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 26.30 | 28.39 |
| state index | 1.80 | -0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.46 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |