← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoit Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 37% | 42% | 2.67 | value: +12% |
| Metz win | 33% | 28% | 3.01 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Joris Gnagnon · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 18' | 🟨 | Cheick Diabaté · Metz |
| 34' | 🟨 | Yoann Gourcuff · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 45' | ⚽ | Cheick Diabaté · Metz |
| 56' | 🟨 | Giovanni Sio · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 62' | 🟨 | Simon Falette · Metz |
| 76' | 🟨 | Iván Balliu · Metz |
| 90' | ⚽ | Wesley Saïd · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 459.00 | 246.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1552.13 | 1623.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.67 | -1.03 |
| eye test v1 | -1.40 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.30 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| league points | 30.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.40 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.21 | 25.94 |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.88 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |