← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bartolomeu Varela Teles, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 45% | 44% | 2.19 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.39 | value: +4% |
| Dijon win | 26% | 25% | 3.74 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Mehdi Abeid · Dijon |
| 27' | 🟨 | Pierre Lees Melou · Dijon |
| 37' | 🟨 | Wylan Cyprien · OGC Nice |
| 69' | ⚽ | Wylan Cyprien · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| coach days | 1707.00 | 307.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1574.81 | 1750.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.50 | 8.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| league points | 27.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.80 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | 1.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.89 | 26.28 |
| state index | -0.43 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | 1.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |